Category Archives: Europe

Germany is not the answer to any serious strategic question

Given the nervous breakdown of America, epitomised by the election of know-nothing Donald Trump as President, it is altogether understandable and human that elites are desperately casting about for a new champion of western stability. There are precious few other candidates for the job, so largely by the process of elimination analysts (particularly on the left) have hit upon Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Germany as the last, best hope for the western order.

This would be a laughable thesis if people were not taking it seriously. For in truth, Germany cannot save either the wider world or Europe. In fact, it is an open question as to whether Germany can even save itself.

In her endless intellectual confusion over the basic fact that caution is not the same thing as wisdom, it is all too easy to point the finger of blame at Merkel for this. Yet Germany’s problems, and the weaknesses that spring from them, are far more systemic and deep-rooted. A simple look at the unholy trinity of crises facing Berlin—the endless euro crisis, the war in Ukraine, and the refugee crisis—makes it clear that Germany is more supplicant than driving force on the world stage.

More than the others, it is euro crisis that provides the analytical key to understanding overall German weakness. The basic problem is psychological and moral. In Europe, what is truly going on is the end of economic life as it has been known. Europeans simply can no longer afford the serene, cosseted, not overly strenuous and very attractive way of life they have grown used to; government in European countries has simply grown unaffordable.

Having bought into the cult of endless leisure time as an inalienable right, it is devilishly hard to row back from this primary sign of decadence. But almost no-one wants to hear this, much less do anything about it. To do so would require a very painful, immediate retrenchment for millions. That is human and understandable, but it is also fatal. For it means that at present democratic politics in Europe is being conducted based on lies.

And lying—beyond the immorality of it–is a very poor basis for making sustainable policy, at least in any open society. With its wilfully ignorant populace, Germany is the primary example of how stubborn self-delusion fuels member states’ approach to Europe.

In essence, to survive, the euro-zone will either move towards a true federation, becoming a debt union complete with fiscal transfers (all done on largely German terms) or the euro will cease to exist. As such, Berlin will be the primary paymaster for such a new political constellation. As none of this appeals to much of anyone in Germany, best not to talk about it. And so Chancellor Merkel does not.

It is at this point that even the sleepiest German citizen will wake up, howling. It is also here that not levelling with one’s own people becomes as poor a strategy as it is immoral. By not making clear what is really going on, Merkel has been able for quite a long while to put off an awful lot of unpleasantness. But to imagine for a moment that the German people won’t feel fundamentally lied to once the check for this Kafkaesque party comes due, is not to be Machiavellian. Rather, it is to be hopelessly naïve.

Whatever Germany ultimately decides to do, there will have to be sacrifices. And any policy requiring those sacrifices that is not buttressed by public support stands no chance of success. Lying as a way to avoid the democratic deficit over the European crisis is not clever.

Meanwhile, Germany, like doomed passengers on the Titanic, has spotted the economic iceberg dead ahead, but made precious little effort to right the ship of state’s course. The demographic problem is especially stark. The old age dependency ratio—which evaluates the number of pensioners in a society versus the working age population—simply cannot be wished away. The German ratio was 34% in 2013, rising to an economically crippling 52% by 2030. Over this period of time, the number of pensioners in Germany will skyrocket by 5 million, even as the number of workers declines by 6 million. Who is going to pay for those endless vacations and for the overly generous social safety net?

The inconvenient truth about Germany is that it is strategically pacifist (with laughable defence capabilities for a serious power), politically ostrich-like in its stubborn refusal to even attempt to master Europe’s many policy crises, and—worst of all—economically very much living on borrowed time.

For all these reasons, Germany is simply not the answer to any serious strategic question there is.

Published in City AM London, January 16, 2017

The year of the vampire: 2017 is when political risk bites back

“I have never met a vampire personally, but I don’t know what might happen tomorrow.”

–Bela Lugosi

Perhaps the greatest single indicator that the West no longer rules the world is its constituent nations’ signal inability to solve any of their many festering crises. Gormless, wildly overrated Chancellor Angela Merkel epitomises this trend more than anyone else. She has made ineffectual policy failure into a sort of performance art, astoundingly convincing many that ‘managing crises’ is an acceptable substitute for solving them.

But of course it is not; it is merely a novel marketing tool for putting off the inconvenient truth that the West’s crises are structural, endemic, and are in the process of going septic. For the hard rule of history is that either you master crises, or they master you. 2017 will be the year of the vampire, when the myriad unsolved policy challenges confronting the West bite back, in their undead fashion.

The refugee crisis will rise to threaten Europe’s political order. While the hell of Aleppo is ending, the refugee crisis caused by the Syrian civil war is not. The EU’s patchwork immigration deal with Erdogan’s Turkey is coming apart at the seams.

The erratic Turkish President is furious the EU has failed to honour its promise of visas for Turkish citizens to travel in Europe in exchange for Turkey serving as the continent’s night watchmen, keeping the refugees from its shores. Erdogan’s post-failed coup crackdown has made honouring this pledge practically impossible. By the spring, if Erdogan fails to receive German satisfaction over the deal, look for him to open the gates, and the refugee crisis to reappear, seemingly from nowhere. The fundamental east-west divisions within the EU over this issue will bring it to the brink of collapse.

Europe itself is living on borrowed time. While the establishment will (just) survive elections in France, Italy, and Germany this coming year, this amounts to the last roll of the dice for the continent’s elite to find a source of significant growth to save themselves.

Centre-right candidate Francois Fillon will win the French presidency over the populist rightist Marine Le Pen and her Front National (FN) Party. But vampire-like—lurking just beneath the surface—the 2017 presidential election amounts to a triumph for her. Le Pen will roughly double the vote her father received in the second round of the 2002 presidential election, with the FN candidate receiving upwards of an alarming 30% of the total. If Fillon fails to fundamentally reform reactionary France, it is entirely likely that Le Pen wins the presidency the next time around.

Likewise, Chancellor Merkel will win the joyless autumn German parliamentary elections, proving once again that the tallest pygmy in the village is still considered a giant.

But the chickens are coming home to roost even here, in the form of further terror attacks that will be laid at the door of Merkel’s open immigration policy, sluggish domestic growth of under two percent (probably about the baseline target needed to be reached to hold European populism politically at bay), and the fact that the crises all around it will call for decisive German action which Merkel seems constitutionally incapable of providing. A few more years of this drifting and it will be risk on in Germany as well.

In Italy it is probable that Beppe Grillo’s insurgent populist Five Star Movement will actually win the most seats in Italy’s upcoming parliamentary elections, though it could well fall short of an overall majority. New voting rules will likely weaken the power of any sitting administration, meaning Five Star will either govern in a chaotic, weak manner, or be excluded by the other parties from forming a government in the first place. If it is the former look for its challenge to the European order to fade. However, if it is the latter, Five Star is just one ineffective Italian government away from a referendum on the euro.

The Iran nuclear crisis will rear its ugly head as well. In a very changed Washington, the strong anti-Iranian orientation of the new Trump administration—the President himself, National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and even stable Secretary of Defence James Mattis—will cause the seemingly settled Iran nuclear crisis to come back from the dead. Either the deal will be unilaterally abrogated outright, or the administration will harry Iran over every point of its implementation, hoping Tehran walks away in a fury. In either case, the flare-up will precipitate a transatlantic crisis as a hard-pressed Europe will see no reason to follow the despised Trump over the abyss.

Finally, the gormless Trump administration will unwittingly trigger a trade war with China, which could well precipitate the world’s next economic crisis. The year of the vampire is here with a vengeance.

Published in City AM London, Janaury 3, 2017.

Salvaging the Moribund Relationship: The New President and Trans-Atlantic Ties

“We don’t see things as they are, we seem them as we are.”

–Anais Nin

Introduction: The world as it flows toward multipolarity

The Anais Nin quotation which opens this piece stands in direct contrast to the realist ethical imperative of Edmund Burke, that to do good we must see the world as it is, warts and all. Both, of course, are correct; Burke holds the key to doing both good and well in the world. Nin presents us with the pitfall—ourselves–that gets in the way of our doing so.

And here, for all their myriad, debilitating problems, the Europeans certainly have the intellectual edge over their American cousins. I am struck in my constant recent travels across the continent how almost all serious analysts of the left, right, and centre (barring the usual euro-fantasists in Brussels) understand that Europe as a political entity is in either relative (at best) or more likely absolute decline as a power on the face of the earth. Between the endless economic crisis (the IMF projects the Italian economy will not return to its pre-Lehman crisis size until a far-away 2025), the structural flaws in the creation of the euro currency, the refugee crisis, and the corresponding rise of populism, to quote Dylan, ‘You don’t need a weatherman/To know which way the wind blows.’ For all their many troubles, at least European analysts clearly see them.

Strikingly, the same is not true across the Atlantic. While in theory most American analysts accept at some level that Europe is in dire straits, they have no real idea—as their European colleagues so definitely do—that the continent is presently beset by existential crises which require all of its member states’ time and energy to deal with, effectively rendering Europe isolationist.

When your house is on fire, you find it hard to have a conversation with a neighbour about the church fete next week. In just such a way, while German decision-makers still talk to their American counterparts about China, what has been lost in the exchange is how theoretical (and immediately unimportant) such a chat is for those in Berlin. Until Americans understand that Europe’s turn inwards is based on its overwhelming present historical challenges—and is not a matter of them absent-mindedly taking their eye off the geostrategic ball—the transatlantic relationship will continue to disappoint.

For if the Americans cannot see the true state of what Europeans are going through, they are even less likely (particularly President Trump’s Jacksonian nationalist aides) to see themselves as they are in the mirror. While the American economy (unlike Europe’s) has bounced back adequately from the Great Recession, the notion that the world is now one of many powers (rather than merely reflecting American effortless dominance) and that this means there are new and real limits on America’s freedom of action, is utterly lost on them. Yet the new Trump administration whistles past the graveyard at its own peril. The tombstones of all former Great Powers are littered with the same epitaph, ‘It’s just a little local difficulty.’

The greatest analytical problem of all is the poisonous tendency of Great Powers to assume their dominance is forever (as they all do), and to expect that their present difficulties will be easily surmounted, signifying nothing. While sometimes that is so, on other occasions intractable political problems spell the dramatic end of a Great Power, or at the very least a change in the overall global power structure. For Donald Trump’s America, while it remains easily first amongst equals in the new multipolar world, failure to precisely see America’s correct place in the new global order almost certainly dooms his overall foreign policy to failure. The simple truth is America no longer calls all the shots in the world. To assume so, and to behave as if this is so, merely accelerates America’s relative decline.

What the Trump Administration Should Do About Trans-Atlantic Relations

Barack Obama, our first multipolar President (even as Trump’s unilateralism as a foreign policy strategy only works if we found ourselves in an age of American structural dominance), successfully downgraded the absolute centrality of the trans-Atlantic relationship, while maintaining it as an important American interest. Best of all, he did this without anyone much noticing.
There were a few grumbles about how the Obama White House didn’t ‘understand Europe’ (meaning in code valuing it enough) but the transition was accomplished without plunging the alliance into crisis. The eminently sensible reason for this downgrade was not due to a lack of understanding of the continent, but instead due to a very good understanding that in the new multipolar world, Europe is not as important as it once was.

This new structural reality guided the Obama administration not to ask too much of Europe, as exposing its strategic haplessness to the rest of the world—changing global perceptions of the continent for the worse—would merely harm America’s closest allies. The first rule of the new administration (and I am sadly certain they will not follow it) should be to follow in the old White House’s footsteps and not publicly demand too much of a Europe that is unlikely to deliver.

In this vein, Obama has quietly let the trans-Atlantic free trade deal (TTIP) languish and then die. He has not pushed Europe (once Chancellor Merkel explained the situation to him) to do more regarding Russia in Ukraine. He has asked little of the continent over the Middle East. All of this has cloaked the basic structural reality that one of the two pillars of Western dominance in terms of global ordering is utterly beset with its own problems, and is unable to function any longer as part of a West that orders the world.

President Trump, in not asking too much, would do well to not make Europe’s endemic weakness more apparent to all. However, being a Jacksonian nationalist, and largely oblivious to the change in global power realties, I fear he thinks a pep talk with Berlin will suffice to make Europe pay its fair share of defence costs immediately. Instead, a more sustained strategy is in order.

Second, and again following on from the Obama White House’s success, the new Trump administration should defer to Europeans when the issues involve European interests more than American ones. Obama, while having deep (and correct) misgivings about the German-inspired austerity plans that have roiled the continent, wisely largely kept such feelings to himself. To pontificate—as Trump does about everything under the sun on twitter–on intra-European problems almost always backfires, leading to the predictable charges of American meddling, and poisoning the trans-Atlantic well further.

Regarding issues on Europe’s periphery, Obama also tread carefully. He kept mum about the refugee crisis, not criticising a hard-pressed Chancellor Merkel when the shortcomings of her policy became obvious. Even over Russia, after hearing the Germans out about the stupidity of arming the Ukrainians, Obama managed to keep his Wilsonian-dominated political party in check. Merkel pointed out the tactical reality that Russia was prepared to expend far more blood and treasure to affect the fate of a state on its border than either America or Europe ever would. Trump, with his lodestar being American national interests above all, is curiously more likely here to follow in Obama’s footsteps than would have the activist Wilsonians clustered around his rival, Hillary Clinton.

Third, the new President—given the nature of the new multipolar world—must work tirelessly to bind the old trans-Atlantic alliance together to engage the rising regional powers across the globe to be stakeholders in keeping stability going in the new, more chaotic era. The good news is that the vast share of the rising powers are both democratic and capitalistic; the West has won the true values argument without noticing. As such, there are no ideological impediments of any kind in engaging Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Nigeria, Indonesia, India, and re-affirming ties with older allies such as the UK, Japan, Australia, and Canada.

In any multipolar system (such as in the late Victorian era, with America in the Western Hemisphere, Japan in Asia, Germany in Europe, with the British Empire the only omnipresent power) ordering is done at the regional level. Jointly engaging the new rising powers—something the Obama administration did not even begin to do—must become a major part of what the old trans-Atlantic relationship is about. Almost nothing is more important than that the old locus of stability—the trans-Atlantic partnership– expands to include enough regional ordering powers in our new multipolar era. As such, ‘trans-Atlantic-plus’ is the ultimate key to the success in the new age we live in. However, as Jacksonian nationalists—who are deeply suspicious of entangling alliances in all their forms—are now in charge, this vital strategic task is unlikely to even get off the ground.

What the Trump Administration Should Do About NATO

In line with the structural contours of the new multipolar era—with trans-Atlantic relations still constituting a major interest (if one relatively declining in importance) the new administration should both ask less of NATO, but then hold its allies to perform this lesser overall role far better.

Long gone are the Wilsonian and neo-conservative fervid daydreams about NATO forming the nucleus of some sort of global police force. In the same vein post-Cold War efforts for the alliance to look for a new role—as there were no geostrategic threats on the unipolar horizon of the 1990s—or to go out of business, looks like nothing so much as the amusingly antiquated relics of a brief, bygone era.

I argued then what I argue now. It is a classic error to make either too much of NATO, or too little. While life insurance is not sexy, it is a necessary part of life. NATO exists as the ultimate form of political and geostrategic life insurance for the European continent, a reality which means its viability strongly remains in the interests of both the Europeans and of their American allies.

Further, NATO still keeps the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down (integrated in a multilateral setting is the politer phrase). That is what most Europeans and Americans still want and is the basic strategic reason the alliance has endured. There is no need to go looking for new reasons for NATO’s raison d’etre, when the old reasons more than suffice.

The new administration must make the relevance of its own red lines (as the Kremlin has made its spheres of influence views brutally obvious in Ukraine) crystal clear to both friend and foe alike. While President Obama said all the right things about NATO being America’s red line, he did not use the bully pulpit of the presidency to do so nearly loudly enough. President Trump should have his functionaries keep up a relentless drumbeat on this basic strategic point (I have found repetition is a key to foreign policy clarity) and he himself should use the occasion of an early speech in his tenure to unequivocally and forcefully underline America’s strategic policy.

The new president should also speak plainly, privately, and directly to President Putin about the primacy of NATO in terms of American interests. His exchange should go something like this.

‘It is true that the Baltic states will be hard to defend, and that at the time of their accession there should have been more discussion as to their perilous strategic position. However, we are where we are. I am here to tell you that while Ukraine and Georgia matter far more to you than to us, the same is not the case regarding the Baltic states. For if they are threatened in any way, shape, or form, be in no doubt that America and its European allies will spring to their defence. This is not because of their intrinsic value to us, but because failure to do so would obviously neuter NATO, the most successful military alliance in the history of the world, a primary American power multiplier, and a central American national interest. Be in no doubt, we will do what we have to do to defend any NATO member state because the alliance remains central to American global strategic interests.’

That clarity ought to do the trick. And the President-elect can do clarity well.

In line with the precepts for trans-Atlantic relations I have delineated above (and to which NATO issues must always be a sub-set), the Trump administration should be as privately insistent (not publicly hectoring as President-elect Trump too often is) as it can be about the cancer that has long eaten away at NATO: The lack of equitable burden-sharing. For Donald Trump has exposed a nerve that has become embedded in the American decision-making consciousness. I have found from my own experience that any Congressman—however clueless about the state of the wider world—knows one big thing: America’s European allies simply don’t pay their fair share of our common defence.

It is risible and unfair (and politically poisonous in America) that Europeans cross subsidise their early retirements and generous social benefits on the backs of American taxpayers. And in our new era, with Europe remaining an important but relatively declining American interest, it will no longer be tolerated for long. Far more than Vladimir Putin, this internal political time bomb is the greatest threat to the continuing health of the Atlantic alliance.

Here the fable of the boy who cried wolf causes real strategic danger. Perpetually overly sanguine European decision-makers serially overrate their importance to America, pointing out that the US has been complaining about the lack of European military spending since the dawn of NATO. And indeed, the numbers in 2015 provide for a lot to complain about. Despite solemnly agreeing in treaty form to meet the base 2% of GDP spending target NATO has set for its members, incredibly only 5 of NATO’s 28 members met this modest commitment (the US, Britain, Estonia, Greece, and Poland). At 3.6%, the US spends by far the most, accounting for a politically unhealthy 72% of overall NATO defence spending.

Italy, Germany, and Spain are the primary serious power culprits, at 1.2%, 1.1% and an incredible .8% respectively. Overly sanguine European observers are correct in that in the past in the Cold War if the Europeans had spent nothing at all, the US would likely have come to its defence and established some sort of alliance with the continent, so central was its importance to American strategic thinking.

During the brief period of American hegemony in the 1990s—after the collapse of the USSR and before the rise and rise of China—America could easily strategically afford to pocket the NATO bill. However, in this new era of American nationalism, Europe is no longer as relatively important to America as it once was, nor is a US in relative decline able to blithely continue to pick up the tab. President Trump must make this change in circumstances privately but bluntly clear to America’s European allies, convincing them that this changing strategic reality means that this time the wolf is indeed at the door. If Europe wants to renew its long-term life insurance policy, it is time to actually pay the premium in terms of increased defence spending so the hard-pressed American public will continue to support the trans-Atlantic alliance.

Conclusion: The sad reality of a Jacksonian President

Given the world that we live in, that is what the new president should do regarding trans-Atlantic relations and NATO. However, that is not what the new President will do. Oblivious to the change in the structural nature of the world, Donald Trump is far more likely to barge into the continent like a bull in a china shop, unwittingly causing a major trans-Atlantic crisis. Look for him to publicly demand (rather than privately cajoling) America’s European partners pay their fair share of our common defence.

And look for Europe to do absolutely nothing (or at best as little as possible) about this central (and entirely correct) demand, as they, unlike President Trump, have a thorough understanding of the different and immediate existential crises that bedevil and utterly preoccupy Europe, to the exclusion of all else. At this point a real and dangerous trans-Atlantic crisis is likely to be upon us. As Donald Trump’s public and immediate ‘ask’ will be met by an embarrassed ‘no’ by his allies.

It is then that two things will be made plain to all. First, Donald Trump’s overall foreign policy will be doomed to failure as he simply does not understand the basic state of power in today’s new era. Second, that Europe and America have diverging strategic interests, with an isolationist continent wholly consumed by its efforts to merely survive. Tragically, it is then and only then—after all the unnecessary damage that will be done—that my realist strategy for the trans-Atlantic alliance will then be taken seriously, as a way to pick up the pieces.

Published in Aspenia December 2016